五矿期货文字早评-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Equity Index: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - Treasury Bonds: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - Precious Metals: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - Black Building Materials: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - Energy Chemicals: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - Agricultural Products: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - Equity Index: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - Treasury Bonds: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - Lead: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - Nickel: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - Tin: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - Carbonate Lithium: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - Alumina: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - Stainless Steel: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - Industrial Silicon: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - Rubber: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - Crude Oil: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - Methanol: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - Urea: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - Styrene: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - PVC: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - PTA: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - Para - xylene: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - Polyethylene PE: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - Polypropylene PP: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - Eggs: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - Oils: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].