软商品日报：供应过剩预期持续施压，白糖震荡偏弱-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "oscillation", and the rating for cotton is also "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number being shorter and fewer compared to the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention and control. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, with more high - temperature days than the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - External Quotes: From July 13th to July 14th, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.56 dollars to 16.31 dollars, a decline of 1.51%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.42 dollars to 68.11 dollars, an increase of 1.02% [3] - Spot Prices: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.19%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, an increase of 0.33% [3] - Spreads: For sugar, SR01 - 05 increased by 5.56%, SR05 - 09 remained unchanged, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.66%. For cotton, CF01 - 05 increased by 25.00%, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 7.69% [3] - Basis: The basis of sugar decreased, with sugar 01 basis decreasing by 3.62%, sugar 05 basis decreasing by 2.12%, and sugar 09 basis decreasing by 7.37%. The basis of cotton increased, with cotton 01 basis increasing by 2.35%, cotton 05 basis increasing by 2.66%, and cotton 09 basis increasing by 2.82% [3] Other Data - Import Price: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - Profit Space: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - Options: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0733, and its futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.52. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0726. The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0963, and its futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.35. The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0987 [3] - Warehouse Receipts: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22744.0 to 22716.0, a decrease of 0.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9850.0 to 9807.0, a decrease of 0.44% [3] Company Information - Report research's company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has multiple memberships in various futures exchanges and associations [2][9]