纯苯：纯苯产业链介绍及供需关系

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is expected to gradually ease the shortage situation under the dual effects of explicit capacity expansion and implicit supply elasticity, but raw material constraints, technological bottlenecks, and demand resilience will still maintain a dynamic tight - balance pattern [2][28] - Although capacity expansion may lead to short - term supply relaxation, the new energy, high - end manufacturing, and green materials sectors will continuously optimize the demand structure, and the medium - to - long - term supply and demand will still tend towards dynamic balance [18] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog (1) Upstream Supply - Petroleum benzene in pure benzene has three main raw material sources: ethylene cracking (accounting for about 25%), catalytic reforming (about 55%), and disproportionation and isomerization (about 20%). Supplementary sources include hydrogenated benzene (coal - based route, 14%) and imported benzene (with a dependence of about 15%, mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia) [4] (2) Mid - stream Trade - Petroleum benzene production has been growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 8% - 10% from 2023 - 2024, driven by the concentrated release of private refining and chemical production capacity. In 2024, the total production capacity exceeded 2100 tons [9] - Hydrogenated benzene production has stagnated, with a growth rate close to zero. In 2023, the growth rate was only 0.5%, and in the first half of 2024, there was a negative growth of - 1.2%. The reasons include high raw material coal tar prices, long - term negative processing profits, strict environmental protection policies, and low industry operating rates [9] - The import dependence has increased. In 2023, the import volume of pure benzene reached 3.2 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 15%), and the import dependence rose from 8% to 12%. It is expected to exceed 3.5 million tons in 2024 [10] (3) Downstream Demand - The downstream consumption of pure benzene is driven by five core areas: styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol/acetone (16%), aniline (13%), and adipic acid (7%) [17] - There is a pressure of supply surplus as the new private refining and chemical production capacity from 2023 - 2025 exceeds 8 million tons per year, pushing the domestic self - sufficiency rate to over 90%. At the same time, there are new demand growth points, such as the new energy vehicle lightweight trend and the expansion of the wind power industry [17] (4) Summary - In 2025, the growth rate of petroleum benzene production capacity will significantly increase, mainly driven by the concentrated commissioning of ethylene cracking units. However, the actual production capacity realization may be affected by the tight supply of naphtha and mixed - feed technology limitations. There is also implicit supply increment through production route optimization [28]