宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250715

品种观点参考 - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight downward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5 [2] - The core logic is that both supply and demand are weak, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. The number of steel mill inspections has increased, and the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously decreasing. The demand in the off - season has weakened as expected. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the reduction space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at ports has significantly increased, but the shipping volume of miners has continued to be weak. According to the shipping schedule, it is difficult to have a continuous increase in subsequent arrivals. Overseas ore supply remains at a low level, and domestic ore production has also weakened, resulting in a contraction in supply [3] - Currently, the optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the ore price to remain at a high level. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level, with the upward driving force weakening. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating and consolidating state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of finished products [3]