宝城期货国债期货早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall view of the report is that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although the short - term demand for safe - haven has decreased, the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited due to the need for a loose monetary environment [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "fluctuation", and the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures slightly pulled back yesterday. The demand for safe - haven of Treasury bonds has decreased due to the recovery of stock market risk appetite and the easing of Sino - US tariff risks. However, in the medium - to - long - term, due to weak inflation and insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed, so the downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5].