宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is dominated by expectations, and steel prices have stabilized during the off - season. For the rebar 2510, in the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it will be oscillating with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although production has declined and demand is weak, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions, the strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and the implementation of policies should be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight downward trend. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices stabilize during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and rebar production has declined again, but the decline is limited and the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply pressure relief is limited. The rebar demand is seasonally weakening, with weekly performance decreasing month - on - month and high - frequency transactions also shrinking, remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still putting pressure on steel prices [3]. - Currently, although the rebar fundamentals are seasonally weak and steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off - season, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions. The strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [3].