烧碱：成本下滑，短期震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is due to some plants reducing production due to the weak liquid chlorine market and downstream seasonal restocking, but the supply - side driver is unsustainable as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season, so the rebound lacks sustainability [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously shut - down plants in Shandong will restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [3] - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina caustic soda inventory is neutral, but the export direction provides good support with strong willingness to restock at low prices [3] - The caustic soda trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 15, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2532, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 820, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2563, and the basis was 31 [1] Spot News - On July 15, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa remained unchanged at - 250 yuan ex - factory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is driven by supply - side production cuts and downstream restocking, but the supply - side driver is short - lived as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [3] - In July, maintenance capacity decreased, and new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, leading to high supply pressure [3] - Non - aluminum demand support is weak, alumina inventory is neutral, and the export market provides good support [3]