沥青：厂库回落，重心随油震荡偏强

Report Title Asphalt: Factory Inventory Declines, Price Center Oscillates Strongly with Oil Report Date July 15, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The asphalt market shows that the factory inventory has declined, and the price center oscillates strongly with the oil price. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: - BU2508 closed at 3,681 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 1.08%, and 3,679 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 3,977 lots, an increase of 1,660 lots, and the open interest was 12,525 lots, a decrease of 1,566 lots [1]. - BU2509 closed at 3,646 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.21%, and 3,649 yuan/ton in the night session with an increase of 0.08%. The trading volume was 151,549 lots, a decrease of 7,524 lots, and the open interest was 231,231 lots, an increase of 13,867 lots [1]. - Spot Market: - The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 82,300 lots yesterday with no change [1]. - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 129 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 35 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton and 170 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,810 yuan/ton yesterday with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton yesterday with no change [1]. - Inventory and Production: - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 805,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to July 10. The factory inventory in the East China region decreased the most due to the intermittent shutdown of the main refineries in the region, resulting in a decline in supply and a decrease in inventory driven by good ship shipments after the decline in ship prices [13]. - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.822 million tons, an increase of 0.2% compared to July 10. The social inventory in the southwest and Shandong regions increased significantly. In the southwest region, it was mainly due to the recent arrival of ships for warehousing, and in the Shandong region, it was mainly due to the transfer of some factory inventory resources to social warehouses [13]. - In the week from July 8 to July 14, 2025, according to Longzhong's tracking of 92 enterprises, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 568,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons (0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 92,000 tons (19.3%). The cumulative production from January to July was 15.946 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.046 million tons (7.0%) [13]. - The refinery operating rate was 34.60% on July 14, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points compared to July 10, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.00%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points compared to July 10 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - The price of asphalt follows the rapid decline of oil prices, and the regional spot price spread remains stable [10]. - The total open interest of the asphalt index and the Shandong basis strengthened and then partially converged [8].