Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The relaxation of port inspections is expected to increase export demand. However, agricultural demand in July is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. In the short term, the price will oscillate within the range of 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton, and long positions should be held cautiously [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 12 yuan to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1840 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 1025 lots to 193,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 708 lots to 215,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 198,600 tons, 1,200 tons less than the previous working day and 29,100 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 85.79%, 7.52 percentage points higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, 50,800 tons less than last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. The urea port inventory is 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 29.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, and the operating rate of melamine is 62.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - Policy: To facilitate the self - regulated export of urea by circulation enterprises, the association has coordinated with relevant departments to open a port legal inspection channel. Three state - owned fertilizer trading enterprises will be the execution subjects for the self - regulated export port legal inspection of urea [1] - Tender: The RCF urea import tender received a total of 3.0809 million tons of supplies from 21 suppliers. Only 405,000 tons of supplies were below the CIF price of $500/ton [1] Market Logic - With the relaxation of port inspections, export demand is expected to increase. But in July, agricultural demand is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. Upstream factories are destocking this week, and the Indian tender results continue to be favorable for exports. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Long positions should be held cautiously [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250715
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-15 01:41