国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250715

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - Fundamental Data: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Macro and Industry News: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - Price and Position Information: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - Fundamental Information: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].