原油：逢低加多，三季度或再挑战80美元/桶

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests to buy more crude oil on dips, and the price may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.47 per barrel, a 2.15% decline, at $66.98 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.15 per barrel, a 1.63% decline, at $69.21 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 507.50 yuan per barrel [2]. Market News - Russian seaborne oil product exports in June decreased by 3.4% month - on - month [3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel respectively by 2026 [4]. - Trump stated that the US will send more weapons to Ukraine and may impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if no agreement is reached within 50 days [4]. - S&P reported that Azerbaijan's production in June was 71,000 barrels per day less than the OPEC+ quota [4]. - Iran's foreign minister will visit China [4]. - The General Administration of Customs will implement zero - tariff policies for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [4]. - The deputy director of the General Administration of Customs said that Sino - US trade has rebounded, with the import and export value in June rising from less than 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan, and the year - on - year decline narrowing significantly [4]. - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [4]. - Federal Reserve's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [4]. - Powell asked the Fed inspector to review renovation costs [4]. - The EU trade chief plans to hold talks with US counterparts later on Monday [4]. - A member of Iran's National Security Council said that the military agreement on the Strait of Hormuz has been finalized, and the decision to close the strait has not been made [5]. - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed should be independent but is "very wrong" on tariff issues [7]. - Brazil plans to ask the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and will announce reciprocal counter - measures [7]. - In August, the one - way freight for Russian Urals oil between Baltic ports and India dropped below $5.3 million [7]. - The US Ambassador to NATO said secondary sanctions will target buyers of Russian oil [7]. - US President Trump will announce a $70 billion artificial intelligence and energy investment plan in Pennsylvania on Tuesday [7]. - The EU may impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about $84 billion if the trade negotiation fails, as Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [7]. - NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that countries will quickly transport equipment to Ukraine, and European countries are "stepping up" arms supplies [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a bullish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6].