对二甲苯：单边震荡市，PTA，关注长丝工厂减产情况，MEG，低库存，单边震荡市，月差逢低正套

Market Overview - PX price rebounded today with Asian spot transactions at various prices, and it's supported by rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors. The current estimated price is 852 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars from last Friday [3]. - PTA futures closed up in a volatile market, with a weak spot market negotiation atmosphere and stable basis. The mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 8 [5]. - A 900,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore plans to shut down for maintenance in August, and several Saudi MEG plants have reduced loads or shut down [5][6]. - Textile and clothing exports from January - June 2025 showed different trends in RMB and USD terms. In June, exports showed mixed growth and decline compared to the same and previous periods [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, while in Fujian, sales were smooth due to rising futures prices [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral stance [7]. Views and Suggestions PX - The market focuses on the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. Supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing on the single side and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Pay attention to far - month PXN compression positions. The Asian PX operating rate is 73.6% (- 0.5%), and PTA load has increased. PX supply - demand is tight in July, and the monthly spread is expected to be strong. Aromatics are over - valued relative to oil products, and it's advisable to focus on far - month PXN compression [7]. PTA - The market focuses on whether the commissioning of Sanfangxiang will be delayed and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing on the single side and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Go long on PX and short on PTA, and long on PR and short on PTA in the 01 contract. PTA supply increases while demand decreases, polyester operating rate is declining, and there is pressure on PTA inventory accumulation. However, the downside of the single - side price is limited due to low raw material inventory in polyester factories, and processing fees are under pressure [8][9]. MEG - The shutdown of Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants may affect future imports. It's a bullish volatile market on the single side, and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Supply increases while demand decreases, but inventory is low, and coal prices have rebounded. Pay attention to the restart of Yulin Energy Chemical. The monthly spread of ethylene glycol should be positively spread when the price is low [10]. Price and Data Futures | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Monthly Spread (Yesterday) | Monthly Spread (Change) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6778 | 6694 | 84 | 94 | 20 | | PTA Main | 4740 | 40 | 0.85% | 40 | 2 | | MEG Main | 4357 | 52 | 1.21% | - 12 | 14 | | PF Main | 6436 | 48 | 0.75% | 146 | 26 | | SC Main | 513 | - 0.9 | - 0.18% | 14.5 | 4.8 | [2] Spot | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | 850.33 | 836.67 | 13.66 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4735 | 4715 | 20 | | MEG Spot | 4405 | 4383 | 22 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597 | 584.25 | 12.75 | | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | 71.45 | 72.63 | - 1.18 | [2] Spot Processing Fees | Spot Processing Fees | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 252.42 | 256.67 | - 4.25 | | PTA Processing Fee | 200.03 | 158.43 | 41.6 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 304.31 | 301.29 | 3.02 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | - 410.69 | - 453.71 | 43.02 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 7.42 | - 7.42 | 0 | [2]