高盛：美国关税影响追踪 -趋势显示中美关系更多缓和及利率宽松

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for FedEx Corp., United Parcel Service Inc., and Eagle Materials Inc., while C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. is rated as "Neutral" [90]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sequential drop of 6% in laden vessels from China to the US, marking the second consecutive week of decline after a surge [1][5]. - Container rates are under significant pressure, with a recent sequential drop of 24% and a year-over-year decline of 71% [5][36]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts and inventory management [6][7]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Flows - High-frequency data is utilized to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, with a focus on freight flows from China to the US [2][3]. - The report notes that laden container vessels from China to the US experienced a year-over-year decline of 1% and a sequential drop of 6% [21][13]. Trade Scenarios and Economic Outlook - The report discusses two broad scenarios for 2025: a potential pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity due to uncertainty [6][7]. - The likelihood of a recession has decreased, with Goldman Sachs economists lowering their recession forecast to 30% and increasing GDP outlook for Q4 to 1.3% [11]. Container and TEU Trends - TEUs from China to the US saw a year-over-year decline of 2% and a sequential decrease of 5% [21][25]. - The report indicates that intermodal traffic on the West Coast rose by 5% year-over-year, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous negative trends [47]. Shipping Rates and Market Dynamics - Ocean container rates from China to the US West Coast have seen a significant decline, reflecting the volatility in shipping demand [36][39]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to fluctuate, with a recent decrease of 11% sequentially, followed by anticipated increases [41][39]. Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - The Logistics Managers Index indicates upstream inventory expansion while downstream inventories have compressed, reflecting differing trends in B2B and B2C sectors [70][72]. - The report estimates significant fluctuations in trade values, with potential increases in imports observed in June compared to previous months [67][68].