高盛：中国_6 月贷款及信贷数据强于预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the industry, supported by stronger-than-expected loan and credit data in June [1]. Core Insights - June money and credit data exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by robust loan extensions and strong government bond issuance [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the gradual transmission of monetary policy and the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility, suggesting a potential gentle descent for USD/CNY in the coming months [1][11]. Summary by Sections Loan and Credit Data - New RMB loans in June were reported at RMB 2240 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of RMB 2020 billion and Goldman Sachs forecast of RMB 2000 billion [2]. - Outstanding RMB loan growth remained stable at 7.1% year-over-year in June, consistent with May's figures [3][9]. - Total social financing (TSF) flow reached RMB 4199 billion in June, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3801 billion [2]. TSF and M2 Growth - TSF stock growth accelerated to 8.9% year-over-year in June, compared to 8.7% in May, with a month-on-month growth of 8.2% [3][9]. - M2 growth was reported at 8.3% year-over-year in June, up from 7.9% in May, aligning with market expectations [3][10]. Government Bonds and Fiscal Deposits - Total government bond net issuance remained strong at RMB 1409 billion in June, slightly up from RMB 1352 billion in May [4][9]. - Fiscal deposits declined in June, consistent with seasonal patterns, indicating a potential increase in money supply growth due to the use of fiscal funds [10][11].