摩根士丹利：全球宏观策略-Unsustainable Unsustainability

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Debt sustainability analysis often overlooks critical contexts such as monetary system structure, non-sovereign alternatives, and investor psychology, leading to a narrow understanding of the issue [9][12][15] - Investors, rather than models, determine debt sustainability through a multi-factor equation that includes more variables than just interest rates and growth [9][37] - The report highlights that government debt does not exist in isolation but within a complex landscape of alternative investments, which influences perceptions of sustainability [15][31] Summary by Sections Debt Sustainability Analysis - The analysis of debt sustainability is often simplified to one or two dimensions, neglecting the multi-dimensional nature of the investment landscape [9][12] - Concerns about US debt sustainability have been ongoing for over a decade, with significant events like the Moody's downgrade and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act reigniting discussions [11][12] Market Reactions - Market pricing of government bond yields is influenced by various risks, making it challenging to isolate the impact of debt sustainability concerns [14][19] - The report notes that yields on 30-year government bonds in countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios do not necessarily rise with increasing debt levels, indicating a complex relationship [14][16] Global Context - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding debt sustainability within the broader context of global investments, particularly the differences between hard-currency and local-currency debt [26][28] - Emerging market local-currency bonds have proliferated since the pandemic, potentially reducing investor concerns about debt sustainability risks [28] Investor Behavior - Investors play a crucial role in assessing debt sustainability, often applying a broader perspective than traditional models, which can lead to different conclusions about risk [19][37] - The report suggests that academic approaches to linking debt levels with bond yields may miss important contextual factors, such as investor expectations and central bank responses [39][40]