摩根大通：亚洲即将出现的不满

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the Asian economy, suggesting a potential slowdown in growth due to rising effective tariffs and the unwinding of frontloading and transshipment activities [6][15][25]. Core Insights - Asian growth has been supported by low effective tariffs on US imports, but this is expected to change as tariffs rise and scrutiny on transshipment increases [1][6]. - The first half of 2025 saw significant frontloading of exports, particularly in the tech sector, with annualized export momentum reaching nearly 20% [2][5]. - China's export performance has been resilient, with a 20% quarter-on-quarter growth despite punitive tariffs, largely due to transshipment through third countries [3][10]. - Effective tariff rates in Emerging Asia (excluding India and China) are currently around 11%, but could rise to 20.3% if no trade deals are reached [11][15]. - The report forecasts a sharp decline in GDP growth for Emerging Asia, from an average of 3% in the first half of 2025 to 1.3% in the second half [15][16]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - Frontloading of exports has significantly boosted growth, with tech exports showing an annualized momentum of 60% [2][5]. - Transshipment of Chinese goods has mitigated the impact of US tariffs, with exports to the US declining by 40% but offset by new markets [3][10]. Tariff Implications - The US has proposed higher tariffs, with a potential doubling of effective rates for many Asian economies if no agreements are reached [11][15]. - Current effective tariff rates are much lower than initially feared, particularly for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are crucial for economies like Taiwan and Singapore [5][12]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in growth, with EMAX GDP growth expected to drop to less than half of the first half's pace [15][16]. - Monetary policy is expected to play a crucial role in supporting growth, as inflation remains benign and central banks are likely to continue easing cycles [23][25].