高盛：全球经济_即将到来的贸易拖累对非美国增长的影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for non-US growth due to trade headwinds, suggesting a cautious investment stance in related sectors [2][30]. Core Insights - A significant increase in US imports in Q1 provided a boost to GDP growth among US trading partners, particularly in Taiwan and Ireland, where manufacturing GVA contributed 9 percentage points to annualized GDP growth [2][30]. - The report anticipates that the tailwinds from frontloading exports to the US and a boost from Dollar appreciation are shifting to headwinds, with tariffs expected to dampen export growth [2][30]. - The overall drag on real exports is estimated to be between 4% to 15% for major economies, with specific impacts of a 3% decline from USD depreciation and another 3% from tariff implementation [2][21][30]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - The surge in US imports was driven by frontloading ahead of tariff implementation, which is expected to reverse within the next three months [10][18]. - A cumulative 6% appreciation of the Dollar in Q4 2024 is projected to lower total real exports by approximately 3% in 2025H2, with the most significant impacts felt in the UK and Euro area [15][21]. Economic Activity Impact - The trade pullback is likely to affect broader economic activity, with historical data suggesting a potential decline in industrial production by 1-5% and manufacturing PMIs by 1-4 points in the coming months [28][30]. - The report forecasts a slowdown in global ex-US GDP growth from 3.2% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2, 1.6% in Q3, and 1.9% in Q4, primarily due to trade headwinds [30][34]. Sector-Specific Effects - The report highlights that the largest declines in industrial production are expected in Canada (-5%) and Germany (-4%), while smaller declines are anticipated in China (-1.2%) and Japan (-1.7%) [28][30]. - Manufacturing PMIs are expected to reflect these trade-related slowdowns, with a 10 percentage point decline in total real export growth potentially lowering PMIs by 1-3 points [25][28].