高盛宏观：你需要了解的五件事!

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for US equities, expecting them to outperform European equities, with a consensus on shorting the dollar [18][20]. Core Insights - The USDCNH is projected to reach 7.10 in the next 2-3 months, driven by recent trends in the US-China trade relationship and currency movements [12][14]. - There is a strong consensus among investors for shorting the dollar, with expectations for EURUSD to end the year in the 1.15 - 1.25 range [24][23]. - The report highlights a rebound in AI-related investments, with 66% of respondents maintaining or increasing their positions in the "Mag 7" stocks [22]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) forecast has been revised upward to 0.68, influenced by urban stimulus speculation in China's property market [29][30]. Summary by Sections Currency and FX Insights - The report notes a significant washout in the Brazilian real (BRL) due to tariff headlines, but the impact on Brazil's economy is expected to be limited as trade with the US represents less than 2% of GDP [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a downside in USDCNH, with recent movements indicating a new YTD low in USDCNY [5][12]. - Hedging costs are at their lowest of the year, suggesting favorable conditions for currency trades [8]. Economic Activity and Forecasts - Industrial production in China is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting improved export growth and manufacturing conditions [45][46]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to rebound to 4.3% year-on-year in June, supported by government bond issuance and construction activity [47][48]. - Retail sales growth is anticipated to decline to 4.6% year-on-year in June, indicating potential headwinds for the second half of the year [49][50]. - The GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been slightly upgraded to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while the Q3 forecast has been downgraded to 2.5% [51][52].