招商期货商品期货早班车-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the futures market are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and seasonal patterns. Different commodities show different trends, including high - level shocks, weakening trends, and short - term rebounds [2][3][4]. - The market is in a state of complexity and uncertainty, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although low domestic inventory provides support, macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand limit the upside space. Alumina is in a game between strong current situation and weak expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. Lead prices may fall after rising due to supply recovery and weak demand [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by factors such as marginal improvement in demand and expected supply increase, the price is expected to rebound in the short - term with fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - Steel: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a small inventory pressure due to low production. The futures discount has narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar [3]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The subsequent inventory build - up may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and lay out long positions in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [3]. - Coking Coal: The supply - demand of coking coal is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures are at a premium, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Short - term US soybeans are weak, within an oscillating range. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - Corn: The spot price of corn is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the future. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - Cotton: It is recommended to sell at high prices and adopt an oscillating range strategy [4]. - Palm Oil: In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector with an expected annual tight supply [4]. - Eggs: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with cost support. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - Pigs: The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [5]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see as the new - season apple production is uncertain and the current consumption is light [5]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short - term, it oscillates mainly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [6]. - PVC: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions as there is a lack of upward - driving force [6]. - PTA: It is recommended to long - allocate PX, and for PTA, pay attention to short - term positive spread opportunities and short the processing fee at high prices in the long - term [7]. - Rubber: It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and hold the RU - NR positive spread [7]. - Glass: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - PP: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [7]. - MEG: It is expected to run weakly, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [8]. - Crude Oil: The overall trend is bearish, and short - selling at high prices while paying attention to inventory accumulation is recommended [8]. - Styrene: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [8]. - Soda Ash: The fundamentals are weak, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [8].