白糖：窄幅波动

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The sugar market shows narrow - range fluctuations, with various supply - demand factors influencing both domestic and international markets [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price Data: The raw sugar price is 16.3 cents/pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.27; the mainstream spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5817 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 7 [1] - Spread Data: The 91 spread is 178 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 3; the 15 spread is 57 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3; the mainstream spot basis is 243 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 7 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil is still slow, but the MIX has increased significantly year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the Long - Period Average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7%. China's sugar imports were 2.1 million tons (-1.04 million tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of July 1, in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), with the cumulative MIX increasing by 2.33 percentage points year - on - year [2] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing a neutral outlook [3]