生猪：维持震荡

Report Overview - Investment Rating for the Industry: Maintain a volatile outlook for live hogs [1] - Core View: The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - term sentiment, increasing the market's speculative sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to - late July. The impact path of this round of inventory rotation is more complex and needs to be judged based on multiple factors. Short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5] Fundamental Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 14,730 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton - Sichuan spot price is 14,000 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 350 yuan/ton - Guangdong spot price is 16,290 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change [3] Futures Prices - The price of live hog 2509 is 14,285 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton - The price of live hog 2511 is 13,605 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton - The price of live hog 2601 is 13,725 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of live hog 2509 is 26,084 lots, an increase of 4,625 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 69,384 lots, a decrease of 2,852 lots from the previous day - The trading volume of live hog 2511 is 6,298 lots, an increase of 691 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 43,452 lots, an increase of 659 lots from the previous day - The trading volume of live hog 2601 is 2,872 lots, a decrease of 1,397 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 21,614 lots, an increase of 556 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - The basis of live hog 2509 is 445 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton - The basis of live hog 2511 is 1,125 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton - The basis of live hog 2601 is 1,005 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 120 yuan/ton - The spread between live hog 9 - 11 is 680 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton - The spread between live hog 11 - 1 is - 120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook (the range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish) [4] Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has led to a policy bottom sentiment, and the July - August bullish expectation has increased near - term sentiment and market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in Q1 will enter the market in mid - to - late July. The impact path of inventory rotation is complex and requires consideration of multiple factors. Short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]