金信期货日刊-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. Supply tightened due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the production - capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Demand increased during the "peak - summer" period. This may raise steel production costs and steel prices, and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - In the stock market, the overall situation is that the Shanghai Composite Index had a good performance with an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted to an important support level, and investors can buy on dips [11][12]. - For iron ore, the macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. - For glass, the supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. - For methanol, as of July 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory increased. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region had destocking. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. It is expected that annual production will be reduced by 1.2 billion tons. The Mineral Resources Law implemented on July 1 raised the coal - mine production - capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi. The supply of high - quality coking coal tightened, and the spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak - summer" period, the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82% (a new high this year), the daily iron - water output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking - plant operating rate was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking boosted short - term demand [3]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. Customs data showed that China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it has adjusted to an important support level, so investors can buy on dips [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high iron - water output. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. Glass - The supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The East China region saw an inventory increase of 61,000 tons, while the South China region had a decrease of 15,800 tons. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading of 177,200 tons, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22].