Group 1 - The investment advice for p-xylene (PX) is to not chase short positions on a unilateral basis and go for positive spreads on the monthly basis. It's recommended to focus on the compression position of the long - term PX - Naphtha (PXN) [9][4][9] - The investment advice for purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is to not chase short positions on a unilateral basis and go for positive spreads on the monthly basis. For the 01 contract, continue to go long on PX and short on PTA, and long on PR and short on PTA. The supply of PTA is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the processing fee is under downward pressure [10][11] - The investment advice for monoethylene glycol (MEG) is to expect a bullish unilateral shock market, and go for positive spreads on the monthly basis. The supply of MEG is increasing while demand is decreasing, but the inventory is at a low level, combined with the rebound of coal prices, the unilateral price of MEG follows the rebound [12] Group 2 - The investment advice for synthetic rubber is that the upside space has been narrowed. In the short term, synthetic rubber will mainly fluctuate within the range, and the upside space has been narrowed. The static valuation range of the synthetic rubber futures is between 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to fluctuate due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading. The upside valuation is estimated to be around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2508 contract is at a premium of around 100 yuan/ton to the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage space for spot hedging [17] - The investment advice for asphalt is that the center of gravity fluctuates strongly with oil, and the inventory in the factory has declined. It is recommended to go short on a unilateral basis, with a trend strength of - 1 [20][27] - The investment advice for linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is that the macro - end is affected by the rectification of involution, with a strong commodity sentiment. However, the fundamentals of polyethylene have not been significantly improved, with insufficient driving force, leading to a volatile market. The supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the demand support is not strong, so the later trend pressure on PE is still relatively large [34] - The investment advice for polypropylene (PP) is that the spot price has slightly decreased, and the trading is light. The fundamentals have not been significantly improved, resulting in a volatile market [37][38] - The investment advice for caustic soda is that the recent price rebound is due to the previous weakness of liquid chlorine leading to some device load reduction and downstream periodic restocking. However, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to the recovery of chlorine - consuming downstream and the restoration of caustic soda devices, so the supply - side drive is unsustainable. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is reluctant to restock at a high price, so the rebound is unsustainable [42] - The investment advice for pulp is to continue to pay attention to the changes in port inventory and market demand. The spot fundamentals are under high pressure, with high port inventory and continuous supply relaxation; the demand is suppressed by the high inventory of base paper, and the market is wait - and - see [45] - The investment advice for glass is that the original sheet price is stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the speculative demand has increased due to the boost of the futures market, and the inventory is at a low - level [49][49] - The investment advice for methanol is to expect a continued volatile pattern. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July, and the demand from MTO is mainly for rigid procurement. The traditional demand has weakened, so methanol is expected to fluctuate [54] - The investment advice for urea is that the domestic demand is weak, and the export supports a volatile trend. The spot trading has been weak continuously, so it may be under pressure on a unilateral basis [57][58] - The investment advice for styrene is that the spot liquidity has been released, and it is recommended to focus on the position of compressing styrene profit. The supply of styrene is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the non - integrated profit is at a negative level [59][60] - The investment advice for soda ash is that the market has not changed much. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is not strong. It is recommended to expect a low - level volatile market [62] - The investment advice for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is to expect a short - term volatile pattern. The supply of LPG is decreasing due to multiple PDH device overhauls, and the demand from MTO is mainly rigid. The overall supply and demand are both decreasing, so LPG is expected to fluctuate. The upside is suppressed by the negative feedback of low MTO profit, and the downside is supported by low imports in July [66][72] - The investment advice for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is that the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate, and it is recommended to short the chlorine - alkali profit. However, the rectification of involution has weakened the short - selling sentiment [75] - The investment advice for fuel oil is that the night market has continued to weaken, and the short - term is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market has continued to increase [77] - The investment advice for the container shipping index (ECI) is to go short on a unilateral basis for the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 and 02 contracts for protection. The SCFI：European route has7.3% week - rise, and the SCFI：American route has - 18.7% week - rise [79] Group 3 - The investment advice for staple fiber is that the short - term is expected to be a volatile market. The supply of staple fiber is increasing while demand is decreasing, but the inventory is at a low level [32] - The investment advice for bottle chips is that the short - term is expected to be a volatile market. Go long on PR and short on PF. The supply of bottle chips is increasing while demand is decreasing [32] Group 4 - The investment advice for offset printing paper is that the market is in the off - season, and the demand is0. The supply and0. The supply and demand are both0, and0. It is recommended to0. The supply and demand are both0, and it is recommended to continue0. The supply and demand are both0, and it is recommended to continue to watch the changes in port0. The supply and demand are both0, and it is recommended to continue to watch0. 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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250715
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:04