Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The report is generally cautious about the trend of the bond market, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and bullish on the long - term trend of precious metals. It also provides specific trading strategies for various futures products based on their fundamentals and market conditions [6][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in bond futures. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, domestic asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and central banks' gold - buying behavior, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel and Iron Products - Thread and Hot - Rolled Coils: The expectation of supply contraction has pushed up prices, but the downward trend in the real estate industry and over - capacity limit price rebounds. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to end and then consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - Iron Ore: Policy expectations have boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the price is highly valued. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The expectation of supply contraction has pushed up prices, but the over - capacity situation remains. Short - term long - positions and mid - term short - positions can be considered [15]. - Ferroalloys: The short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is in excess. If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. Energy Products - Crude Oil: The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and price caps on Russia restrict price increases. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main contract [19][20][21]. - Fuel Oil: The market has sufficient supply, and trade frictions are negative for prices. The main contract can be considered for short - selling [22][23][24]. Rubber Products - Synthetic Rubber: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [25][26]. - Natural Rubber: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Consider mid - term long - positions [27][29]. Chemical Products - PVC: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [30][33]. - Urea: The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it can be treated as bullish in the medium - term [34][35]. - PX: The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to crude oil price changes [36]. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, and it may oscillate under pressure. Interval trading is recommended [37]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the low - level inventory provides support. Interval trading is the main strategy [38][39]. - Short - Fiber: The short - term fundamentals lack drive, and it may follow cost fluctuations. Be cautious about the repair space of processing margins [40]. - Bottle Chips: The raw material price oscillates, and the device maintenance increases. The market is expected to follow the cost oscillation [41][42]. - Soda Ash: The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the downstream demand is weak. The market oscillates with weak stability [43]. - Glass: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Driven by the energy sector, it is expected to rebound in the short - term [44][45]. - Caustic Soda: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but the overall positive support is limited [46][47][49]. - Paper Pulp: The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate [50][51]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The US tariff increase on copper has led to price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is uncertain [54]. - Tin: The supply is tight, and the demand is good. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. - Nickel: The consumption expectation is improving, but the actual consumption is not optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate [56]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the cost provides support. Consider long - positions for soybean meal after adjustment and call options for soybean oil after a decline [57][58]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. Consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][60]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian crop weather has improved, and the price rebound is limited. Consider long - positions on the oil - meal ratio [61][62]. - Cotton: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the July supply - demand report is negative. It is recommended to short at high prices [63][64][65]. - Sugar: The Brazilian production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. - Apples: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and it is recommended to short at high prices [69][70]. - Pigs: The short - term price may be stable with a narrow adjustment, and it is advisable to short at high prices after observing the weight - reduction in the south [71][72][73]. - Eggs: The supply is expected to increase in July, and it is recommended to hold short - positions [75][76][77]. - Corn and Starch: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the starch market follows the corn trend. It is advisable to wait and see [78][79][80]. - Logs: It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [82][83].
西南期货早间评论-20250715
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:14