贵金属曰评：特朗普政府对更多国家加征关税，关注美国6月消费者物价指数CPI

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The Fed's expected timing of interest rate cuts is delayed, but due to the slower - than - expected bond - issuing pace of the US Treasury, combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Gold and Silver Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 777.46 yuan/g, with a change of 8.16 yuan compared to a certain reference and 5.95 yuan compared to another reference. The trading volume was 38,158, and the open interest was 214,998 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3370.30, the trading volume was 180,941, and the open interest was 254,790. The inventory was 36,748,662.05 troy ounces [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3332.15 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.00 dollars compared to a certain reference and - 0.95 dollars compared to another reference [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9172.00 yuan/kg, the trading volume was 1,017,134, and the open interest was 3,243,004 [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 38.41 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 21,699, and the open interest was 131,773. The inventory was 499,281,076.24 troy ounces [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 37.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.50 dollars compared to a certain reference and 2.11 dollars compared to another reference [1]. Important Information - Tariff Policies: The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. Trump threatens Russia with 100% tariffs if an agreement is not reached within 50 days. Brazil seeks to reduce tariffs to 30% and delay for 90 days. The Trump administration imposes a 17% anti - dumping tariff on Mexican tomatoes [1]. - US Treasury's Plan: The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to 500 billion and 850 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury auction scale [1]. - Central Bank Policies and Economic Data: - The Fed's July interest rate cut probability is low due to higher - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, but the expected timing of rate cuts is still September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June. The market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in June and may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January and may reduce quarterly Treasury purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 35 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 830 - 8600 and the resistance level around 9000 - 10000 [1].