国新国证期货早报-20250715

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the black chain has switched to a dual - wheel drive of industrial bullish factors and valuation repair, and the prices of coke and coking coal are in a low - valuation repair market [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was affected by multiple factors and showed different trends during the day and at night [3] - The price of Shanghai rubber was affected by inventory and weather, showing a downward trend during the day and an upward trend at night [3] - The price of palm oil continued to rise on July 14 but did not break through the previous high [4][5] - The price of soybean meal in the international market fell slightly, while the domestic market rose, and the supply pressure on the spot side increased [6] - The price of live pigs fell, with short - term supply pressure and lack of upward driving force [7] - The price of Shanghai copper was under pressure, and it was difficult to judge whether it had ended the correction [7] - The price of cotton decreased in inventory, and the base - price quotation was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton [7] - The price of logs was concerned about the 790 - 800 pressure range, and the spot price was stable [8] - The price of steel was expected to be strong in the short term due to macro - favorable news [8] - The price of alumina was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell, with slow inventory reduction and weak spot recovery [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 14, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1458.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.4 billion yuan from last Friday. The CSI 300 index closed at 4017.67, a rise of 2.86 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On July 14, the coke weighted index closed at 1532.2, a rise of 18.9; the coking coal weighted index closed at 933.6 yuan, a rise of 14.5. The demand support for both decreased slightly, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly during the day on July 14 but fell at night due to factors such as the possible shift of India's ethanol quota to grains [3] Shanghai Rubber - Affected by the increase in rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the continuous increase in the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port, the Shanghai rubber fell on July 14 but rose at night due to concerns about Thailand's weather. As of July 13, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Palm Oil - On July 14, palm oil continued to rise but did not break through the previous high. From July 1 - 10 in Malaysia, the palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. In June in India, the import volume of palm oil increased by 60%, and the total import volume of vegetable oil increased by 30.6% [4][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, the price of CBOT soybeans fell slightly on July 14. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2992 yuan/ton. In June, China's soybean imports decreased by 11.9% compared with May. The supply pressure on the spot side increased, but there was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September [6] Live Pigs - On July 14, the main live pig LH2509 contract fell 0.42% to 14285 yuan/ton. The terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the short term [7] Shanghai Copper - Affected by US tariff policies, Shanghai copper was under pressure. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee showed a stable trend, but the mine - end tension continued [7] Cotton - On the night of July 14, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13805 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 43 lots [7] Logs - On July 14, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 787.5, closed at 788, and increased positions by 470 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [8] Steel - On July 14, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to macro - favorable news, the price was expected to be strong in the short term [8] Alumina - On July 14, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3145 yuan/ton. It was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 14, the al2508 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20415 yuan/ton. The inventory reduction slowed down, and the spot recovery was weak [9]