工业硅、多晶硅日评：供给端扰动不断，硅系价格走势坚挺-20250715

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation in the short - term, but the volatility may increase. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. In the long - term, the selling pressure on the upper side after the rebound of the futures market may stimulate the resumption of production in the southwest region, and there is still upward pressure [1]. - The polysilicon price may continue a relatively strong trend in the short - term, driven by bullish sentiment and the rise of industrial silicon, but the upward space may be limited. It is advisable to consider taking profits on previous long positions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.16% to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.09% to 9,300 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 3.33% to 8,695 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements with no resumption news. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease on the supply side, there may be a reduction [1]. - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, with some silicon material factories planning to resume production in July, bringing some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, with overall operation declining, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stockpile at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The price of N - type dense material decreased by 1.12% to 44 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.09% to 45.5 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 43.5 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 43.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, generally remaining within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand Side: The photovoltaic market is weak overall, with the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials increasing. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - After the domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotations on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has carried out transactions at the new prices over the weekend, and battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. At the same time, the 210 and 210R models of battery cells have gradually started transactions at 0.26 yuan/w [1]. - A 1,200 - ton/day photovoltaic glass kiln in Anhui was cold - repaired today. As of now, the cold - repaired kiln capacity in July in China is 3,600 tons/day, and there is still a planned cold - repaired capacity of 1,400 tons/day in the follow - up of July [1].