期指：关注二季度GDP及6月经济数据

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.29%, IH fell 0.46%, IC fell 0.3%, and IM fell 0.2% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 83,463 lots, 49,239 lots, 57,299 lots, and 134,671 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 19,160 lots, 14,582 lots, 14,672 lots, and 28,320 lots respectively [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The central bank's data shows that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy is obvious [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were 4009, 3995.4, 3985.8, and 3955.2 respectively, with declines of 0.29%, 0.30%, 0.33%, and 0.41%. The trading volumes decreased by 25,073 lots, 2028 lots, 47,192 lots, and 9170 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 12,573 lots, + 2405 lots, - 8205 lots, and - 787 lots respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were 2751.8, 2748.6, 2747.4, and 2750 respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.53%, 0.50%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes decreased by 13,916 lots, 1026 lots, 30,394 lots, and 3903 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 6696 lots, + 221 lots, - 7554 lots, and - 553 lots respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were 6008.4, 5951.4, 5897.6, and 5774.6 respectively, with declines of 0.30%, 0.36%, 0.39%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes decreased by 20,355 lots, 1770 lots, 25,404 lots, and 9770 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 13,063 lots, + 3845 lots, - 4713 lots, and - 741 lots respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were 6442.2, 6373.4, 6302.2, and 6120.8 respectively, with declines of 0.20%, 0.29%, 0.30%, and 0.28%. The trading volumes decreased by 31,955 lots, 6153 lots, 75,947 lots, and 20,616 lots respectively, and the positions changed by - 14,229 lots, + 6035 lots, - 13,493 lots, and - 3322 lots respectively [1]. 3.2. Positions of the Top 20 Members - For IF contracts, in IF2507, long - orders decreased by 9620 lots with a net change of - 14,538 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,048 lots with a net change of - 15,421 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, in IH2507, long - orders decreased by 5448 lots with a net change of - 12,265 lots, and short - orders decreased by 6088 lots with a net change of - 12,841 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2507, long - orders decreased by 9785 lots with a net change of - 11,634 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,069 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long - orders decreased by 10,792 lots with a net change of - 20,778 lots, and short - orders decreased by 10,998 lots with a net change of - 19,506 lots [5]. 3.3. Important Drivers - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The central bank said the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious [6]. - The central bank's deputy governor said that the monetary policy is moderately loose, and the policy state is supportive with accumulated effects. Since 2020, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and the policy interest rate 9 times [7]. 3.4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. A - share trading volume was 1.48 trillion yuan, down from 1.74 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.27%. The Nasdaq set a new closing record [8].