宝城期货甲醇早报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. - Due to factors such as increased domestic and overseas supply and weakening downstream demand, the methanol supply - demand structure is becoming looser. However, after the release of negative sentiment from the previous sharp correction and the potential new round of supply - side reform, the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend. The night - session of domestic methanol futures on Monday slightly rose 0.46% to 2398 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract on Tuesday is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Change Calculation Rules - For varieties with night - trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation; a rise of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase [3]. - Oscillatory - bullish/weak only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Methanol Market Analysis - The continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity and the arrival of overseas shipments increase the supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - After the previous sharp correction, negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting's tone on governance of low - price disorderly competition and the exit of backward production capacity may bring a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5].