沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The global electrolytic copper total inventory continues to accumulate due to factors such as disturbances in overseas copper mine production or transportation, the significant impact of the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and Trump's government's tariff policies. Copper prices may still have downward space. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,430, down 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 79,136 lots, down 2,530; the open interest was 172,204 lots, down 6,478. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720, down 265 [2]. - London Copper Futures: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic) on July 14 was 9,643.5, down 19.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 109,625 tons [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.5255, down 0.1. The total inventory was 236,454 tons, an increase of 5,311 tons [2]. Industry News - CSPT Meeting: In the second - quarter general manager's office meeting in 2025, CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fee [2]. - US Treasury Plan: The US Treasury plans to raise its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September through increasing the scale of weekly standard - fixed - rate bond auctions, which helps reduce market shocks [2]. Upstream Situation - Copper Concentrate: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The world's (China's) port copper concentrate departure (loading, inventory) volume has changed compared to last week. Due to the Sino - US trade dispute, the willingness of traders to accept US scrap copper is low. However, the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper economically viable, and the scrap copper import window may open, but the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in July may decrease month - on - month, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - Smelting Plants: Some smelting plants have production problems. For example, Glencore's EKSAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Suned copper smelter in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Some new smelting plants are expected to be put into production, such as the Kanoa - Tabula smelter in the Congo (Kinshasa) and some domestic projects [3]. Downstream Situation - Copper Rod: The processing fee of copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory due to high finished - product inventories, but new orders have slightly improved. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared to last week [3]. - Copper Wire and Cable: The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable has increased compared to last week. The raw material inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of copper cable wrapping have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days of cable - wrapping enterprises have decreased [3]. - Other Products: The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip has increased, but the downstream demand is weak due to the traditional consumption off - season. The capacity utilization rate of steel pipes has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase or decrease [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,400 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (5.0 - 6.3 and 6.0 - 7.0) [3].