成材：情绪回升，钢价震荡反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term strategy is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [3] 3. Summary by Related Information Industry Data - There are over 300 electric furnaces in production nationwide with a capacity of nearly 200 million tons, and the proportion of electric furnace steel output to crude steel output has been around 10% in recent years [2] - In June, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - On July 14, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with an average profit loss of 92 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of 11 yuan/ton [2] Market Conditions - Yesterday, steel prices fluctuated. Favorable industrial policies boosted market sentiment, leading to a short - term continuous rebound in steel prices. The daily trading volume of building materials returned to over 100,000 tons, and the rise in raw materials also supported steel prices [2] - Currently, downstream demand has not changed much and remains weak [2] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try shorting on rebounds after the price rises [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions [3]