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20250715申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250715
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:35

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand. Key factors to watch include US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and expected improvement in concentrate supply this year, the market anticipates a possible resumption of smelting supply. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Given these factors, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible resumption of smelting supply, leading to potential wide - range short - term price fluctuations [2]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 78,450 | - 55 | 9,644 | - 62.07 | 108,725 | 625 | | Aluminum | 20,485 | - 80 | 2,597 | - 3.40 | 400,275 | 4,550 | | Zinc | 22,180 | - 15 | 2,733 | - 5.61 | 105,250 | - 350 | | Nickel | 121,700 | - 430 | 15,065 | - 214.82 | 206,178 | 1,440 | | Lead | 17,030 | - 230 | 2,005 | - 32.78 | 249,375 | - 3,000 | | Tin | 266,850 | 130 | 33,560 | - 109.00 | 1,970 | - 45 | [2]