华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]