Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short-term short [2] - Asphalt: High-level short [8] - PX: Oscillating weakly [8] - Gold: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] - Silver: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Core Views - The supply of coke is slightly decreasing, the demand has rigid support, the first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - International oil prices are falling, with short-term low inventory and medium-term supply increase expectations, so short in the short term [2] - Steel prices are pushed up by limit production and raw material prices, but the demand is expected to weaken this week. Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] - Ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [5] - The short-term price of live pigs rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] - The short-term price of palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] - The short-term price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] - The supply and demand of asphalt improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] - The spot pressure of PX appears, and it is viewed as oscillating weakly [8] - Gold is pushed up by geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances, and it is slightly bullish in the medium-term wide-range oscillation [9] - Silver is slightly bullish in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the synchronous movement with gold [9] - The long-term bond market is affected by the stock-bond seesaw, and whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] - The short-term bond market is affected by tight capital, and attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] - The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] - The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13] Summaries by Variety Coke - Supply: Affected by profit compression and Tangshan limit production, the overall supply continues the downward trend [1] - Demand: Steel mills have low inventory and good profits, and the rigid demand for coke still exists [1] - Price: The first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] Crude Oil - Supply: Short-term low inventory, medium-term OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, with supply increase expectations [2] - Price: International oil prices fall, and short in the short term [2] Rebar - Supply: Affected by limit production and raw material prices, the price is pushed up [4] - Demand: The new round of high temperature affects construction progress, and the demand is expected to weaken this week [4] - Price: Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] Iron Ore - Supply: Port inventory decreases, and the number of ships in port increases [5] - Price: The main futures price oscillates at a high level, and it is expected to continue the high-level oscillation under the game of long and short factors [5] Live Pigs - Supply: The group farms' slaughter rhythm is slow, and the second fattening support is insufficient [6] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the slaughterhouse orders are limited [6] - Price: The short-term price rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian production increases, and Indian imports increase [6] - Demand: The domestic spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the downstream is on the sidelines [6] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] Soybean Meal - Supply: The trade tariff adjustment causes concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter [7] - Demand: The oil mill sales progress is slow, and the basis price is lowered [7] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly output increases, and the supply next week may be restricted [7][8] - Demand: Affected by weather, the infrastructure demand recovers slowly [8] - Price: The supply and demand improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] PX - Supply: The domestic and overseas operating rates show different trends, and the overall supply is relatively stable [8] - Demand: The PTA processing fee is at a new low, and the PX spot pressure appears [8] - Price: Oscillating weakly [8] Gold - Driving Factors: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances strengthen, and the safe-haven sentiment pushes up the price [9] - Price: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] Silver - Driving Factors: The Fed faces threats from the government, and the inflation expectation rises [9] - Price: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Long-term Treasury Bonds - Economic Situation: The economy has strong resilience and the recovery momentum is strengthened [10] - Market Situation: The long-term funds enter the market, and the stock-bond seesaw affects the bond market [10] - Price: Whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] Short-term Treasury Bonds - Capital Situation: The capital is tight, which is bearish for short-term bonds [10] - Price: Attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] Methanol - Supply: The cost is stable, the domestic start-up is expected to increase, and the port import is expected to increase [11] - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to be weak [11] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] Soda Ash - Supply: The production increases, and the inventory rises [12] - Demand: The downstream demand is mediocre [12] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] Plastic - Supply: The production enterprise devices are slightly adjusted, and the supply is expected to change little [13] - Demand: In the traditional off-season, the overall transaction is difficult to expand [13] - Price: The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13]
宁证期货今日早评-20250715
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:35