申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250715

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefins are trading in a consolidating manner. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices are generally mediocre. The price fluctuations of the futures market follow costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and polyolefins are gradually consolidating to digest selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the supply contraction effect during the summer equipment maintenance [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7288, 7258, and 7284 respectively, with price changes of 10, 16, and - 7, and price change rates of 0.14%, 0.22%, and - 0.10%. The trading volumes were 58745, 525, and 307887, and the open interests were 116541, 2367, and 421336, with changes of 2138, 301, and - 11185 [2]. - For Polypropylene (PP), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7067, 7060, and 7067 respectively, with price changes of 13, 23, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.18%, 0.33%, and - 0.03%. The trading volumes were 30531, 454, and 229429, and the open interests were 106189, 4816, and 391848, with changes of 48, 320, and - 2340 [2]. - The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) are 30, - 26, - 4, and for PP are 7, - 7, 0 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - In the raw materials market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2400 yuan/ton, 6335 yuan/ton, 567 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6880 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the spot market, the current price ranges for LL in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - On July 14, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 66.98 US dollars per barrel, down 1.47 US dollars or 2.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.21 US dollars per barrel, down 1.15 US dollars or 1.63% from the previous trading day [2].