6月金融数据点评：信贷季节性回暖，存款“活期化”初现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant recovery in M1 and M2 growth rates, with M1 increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and M2 by 8.3% year-on-year, influenced by low base effects and local government debt management [3][4] - The report indicates that the new credit issuance in June exceeded market expectations, with a total of 4.20 trillion yuan in social financing, slightly above the consensus forecast of 4.0 trillion yuan [4] - The report emphasizes that while short-term loans are showing growth, medium to long-term loans remain weak, indicating a slow recovery in the real economy [5][6] Summary by Sections Section: Monetary Data - M1 and M2 growth rates have rebounded significantly, with M1 at 4.6% and M2 at 8.3% year-on-year, attributed to low base effects and local government debt management [3] - The social financing (社融) increased by 4.20 trillion yuan in June, surpassing market expectations, with a year-on-year increase in general loans [4] Section: Credit Market - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down 45 basis points from the same period last year, while personal housing loan rates were around 3.1%, down 60 basis points [5] - Short-term loans contributed significantly to the overall loan growth, with a notable increase in corporate short-term loans [5][6] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a stable outlook for the banking sector, with expected steady growth in revenue and net profit, recommending banks such as CITIC Bank and Everbright Bank, and highlighting cyclical beneficiaries like Suzhou Bank [6]