Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - International News: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - Domestic News: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - Energy - Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - Methanol: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - Rubber: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - Metals - Precious Metals: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - Copper: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - Zinc: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - Black Commodities - Iron Ore: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - Steel: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - Agricultural Products - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - Oils: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping on the European Line: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].
申银万国期货首席点评:关税仍存扰动,关注中美下一轮磋商
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-07-15 02:47