国投期货综合晨报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Brent 09 contract fell 2.11%. The upside potential of oil prices above $70/barrel is limited, but the bottom is expected to rise in Q3 [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its cracking spread is declining. Low - sulfur fuel oil has no obvious demand driver, and its cracking spread is also decreasing [21] - Asphalt: Supply increase flexibility is to be observed. Demand is weak but has repair expectations. Prices follow crude oil, with limited upside before demand improvement [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Middle - East production pressure persists. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation in summer, with prices oscillating weakly [23] Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are volatile due to high uncertainties in US tariff policies and EU counter - measures. Tonight's US CPI data is to be watched [2] - Base Metals - Copper: Prices are likely to fall in the short - term. Short positions can be held or option strategies can be used [3] - Aluminum: There is short - term callback pressure as the price breaks the upward trend line and inventories increase [4] - Zinc: Short - term price decline is difficult, but mid - term short - selling is still recommended due to increasing supply [7] - Lead: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Long positions can be held with support at 17,000 [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Nickel has room for rebound, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - Tin: Short - selling is recommended as the price shows weakening resilience [10] - Carbonate Lithium: Short - selling positions can be gradually established as the price has limited upside due to sufficient supply [11] - Industrial Silicon: Prices are expected to be strong, driven by improving fundamentals and polysilicon sentiment [12] - Polysilicon: Futures prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, following the trend of finished steel products [15] - Coke & Coking Coal: Prices are likely to rise in the short - term, following the steel market [16][17] - Manganese Silicon & Silicon Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to oscillate, with limited ability to follow the rise of steel prices [18][19] Chemicals - Benzene & Its Derivatives: Pure benzene has cost drag from falling oil prices. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in Q3, but it will face pressure in Q4. Styrene is in a range - bound pattern, with cost support [26][27] - Polyolefins: Polyethylene and polypropylene prices are in a range - bound pattern. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC prices may follow market sentiment. Caustic soda prices are expected to be strong [29] - PX & PTA: They are in a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the repair of PTA processing margins [30] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [31] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber can be considered long. Bottle - chip's processing margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - Grains & Oilseeds - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The US soybean report is neutral - bearish. Domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Long - term, vegetable oils can be considered long at low prices. Short - term, policy and weather should be monitored [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The short - term trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39] - Corn: Domestic corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [41] - Livestock & Poultry - Hogs: The price has downward pressure in the medium - term. Hedging can be considered [42] - Eggs: The short - term downside is limited. The long - term cycle has not bottomed out [43] - Cotton & Sugar - Cotton: US cotton is rising, but the USDA report is bearish. Domestic cotton long positions can be closed temporarily [44] - Sugar: US sugar is under pressure. Domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [45] - Fruits - Apples: The new - season production estimate is bearish. A short - selling strategy can be maintained [46] Others - Shipping: The SCFIS European route index rose 7.3%. Short - selling of off - season contracts can be considered at high prices [20] - Glass: The short - term price may follow market sentiment. Long - term, supply contraction is needed for a significant rise [33] - Rubber: The natural rubber supply is increasing, while the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing. RU&NR can be observed, and BR can be considered for a rebound [34] - Paper Pulp: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] - Stock Index: The short - term market risk preference is slightly strong. Technology growth stocks can be increased in the portfolio [49] - Treasury Bonds: The short - term long - position strategy should be cautious. A curve - steepening strategy can be considered [50]