甲醇日评：港口逐步累库，单边驱动有限-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Methanol's unilateral driving force is limited. In terms of valuation, the profits of upstream raw materials are still high, while the comprehensive profits of downstream are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively expensive. In terms of driving force, the current supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The previous geopolitical conflict intensified the shortage of port mobile supply, causing the basis in the East China region to rise significantly. Now the geopolitical situation has eased, most Iranian plants have restarted, and with the replenishment of inland and South American supplies, the shortage of port spot has been alleviated, and the ports are gradually accumulating inventory. It is expected that the operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2463 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, up 20 yuan/ton (0.82%) from July 11; MA05 closed at 2388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.10%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: On July 14, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2385 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan/ton (0.74%); in Shandong it was 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.22%); in Guangdong it was 2395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); in Shaanxi it was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.61%); in Sichuan - Chongqing it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); in Hubei it was 2305 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia it was 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.75%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 78 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from July 11 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: On July 14, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (2.05%); the price of Yulin Q6000 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton (1.53%) [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: On July 14, 2025, the price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price in Chongqing was 3.30 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: On July 14, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 417.10 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.49%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - MTO Profits: The profit of Northwest MTO was 440.40 yuan/ton, up 37.60 yuan/ton (9.33%); the profit of East China MTO was - 682.07 yuan/ton, down 32.50 yuan/ton (-5.00%) [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: The profit of acetic acid was 343.03 yuan/ton, down 44.02 yuan/ton (-11.37%); the profit of MTBE was 45.44 yuan/ton, up 61.80 yuan/ton (377.75%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 238.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of a certain product (erquge) was 466.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-9.69%) [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated in a narrow range, opening at 2369 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 724,589 lots and an open interest of 655,520 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - Foreign Information: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton, and there is currently a lack of bid and transaction information. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of far - month arriving cargoes is +0.5 - 1.5%, and the recent transactions of far - month arriving cargoes are at +0.85 - 1% [1]