铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌区间偏弱-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and the expectation of the peak season support the lead price, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short - term [1] - For zinc, the market has an increase in both ore and ingot supply while demand is in the off - season, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend and weak fundamentals. It is expected that the zinc price will trade weakly in a range in the short - term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead - Prices and Spreads: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875.00 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 17,085.00 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the basis was - 210.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; LME 0 - 3 spread was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [1] - Inventory: As of July 14, SMM lead ingot five - region inventory was 6.34 million tons, an increase of 0.56 million tons from July 7 and 0.24 million tons from July 10; LME inventory was 260,950 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 55,130 tons, up 4.21% [1] - Supply and Demand: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment maintenance last week, reducing production slightly. For secondary lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1] 3.2 Zinc - Prices and Spreads: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,110.00 yuan/ton, down 1.12%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,250.00 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the basis was - 140.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan; LME 0 - 3 spread was - 5.61 dollars/ton, down 5.25 dollars [1] - Inventory: As of July 14, SMM zinc ingot seven - region inventory was 9.31 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons from July 7 and 0.28 million tons from July 10. On July 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 8150 tons to 113,400 tons, up 7.74%, all from Singapore warehouses; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 9,171 tons, up 3.36% [1] - Supply and Demand: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tightness of zinc concentrate has improved, and the production limit on smelters due to raw material shortage has weakened. The demand is in the off - season, and overall purchases are limited [1] 3.3 Industry News - As of July 14, SMM lead ingot five - region inventory increased compared to earlier dates [1] - In the first half of 2025, the national non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment was 6.993 billion yuan, up 23.9% year - on - year. Investment in lead - zinc mines increased to some extent [1] - As of July 14, SMM zinc ingot seven - region inventory increased compared to earlier dates, and LME zinc inventory increased on July 14 [1] 3.4 Investment Strategy - For lead, expect short - term range - bound trading [1] - For zinc, expect short - term weakly range - bound trading and consider short - selling on rallies [1]