国富期货早间看点-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It highlights significant changes in international and domestic supply - demand situations and macro - economic indicators [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight price and percentage change data are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products. Currency exchange rates and their percentage changes are also given, including the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar [1] 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - The future weather outlook (July 19 - 23) for US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - normal rainfall and higher temperatures. The Midwest has a complex weather pattern with intermittent showers and temperature fluctuations. Overall, most areas of corn and soybean crops are in good condition as they enter the pollination stage [3][5] -国际供需 - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, and total vegetable oil imports rose by 30.6%. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 13 was 70%, higher than expected. US soybean export inspection volume was lower than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of July decreased slightly compared to the previous year. Canada's rapeseed has different growth conditions in different provinces. The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high [7][8][9] -国内供需 - On July 14, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil mill operating rate rose. China's soybean imports in June decreased slightly from May but increased year - on - year. Imported edible vegetable oil in June increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The commercial inventory of major oils increased. Agricultural product wholesale price indices declined slightly [11][12][13] 04 Macro要闻 -国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%. A Fed official hopes to see further inflation decline before supporting a rate cut. High - end economists predict US core CPI inflation. Trump threatens to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia. The EU may impose counter - tariffs on US imports. Brazil denies requests related to US tariffs [15][16] -国内要闻 - On July 14, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. China's M2, M1, and social financing scale increased year - on - year. China's trade surplus in June increased, and Sino - US trade showed signs of recovery [18][19] 05资金流向 - On July 14, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 19.195 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 2.604 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 21.798 billion yuan. Different commodities had varying degrees of capital inflow or outflow [21][22] 06套利跟踪 - Not provided in the content