国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products on July 15, 2025 [2]. - Different commodities show diverse trends such as gold and silver are expected to rise, while copper is under pressure due to increased inventory [2][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday's closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 781.40, up 1.01%. ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 [2][7][9]. - Silver: Expected to break through and rise with a trend strength of 1. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9207, up 1.87%. SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 208 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Inventory increase is pressuring prices with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,400, down 0.04%. LME copper inventory rose to 109,625 tons [2][11][13]. - Zinc: Expected to run under pressure with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22,250, down 0.58%. LME zinc inventory increased to 113,400 tons [2][14][15]. - Lead: Focus on the consumption during the peak season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17,085, up 0.06%. LME lead inventory rose to 260,950 tons [2][17]. - Tin: Prices are weakening with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 266,720, up 1.05%. LME tin inventory increased to 2,095 tons [2][19][21]. - Aluminum: Under pressure in the off - season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415, down 280. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 48.30 million tons [2][23][25]. - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 121,100, down 290 [2][26][31]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates due to the game between reality and macro factors with a trend strength of 0. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,715, up 5 [2][26][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Policy disturbances on the supply side, and follow - up actual progress should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. The 2509 contract closed at 66,480, up 2,200 [2][32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Market news has spurred the price to rise on the disk with a trend strength of 1. Si2509 closed at 8,695, up 280 [2][35][37]. - Polysilicon: Policy disturbances, and spot trading should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. PS2508 closed at 41,765, up 435 [2][35][37]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations and expected to oscillate strongly with a trend strength of 0. The futures price closed at 766.5, up 2.5 [2][38]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. RB2510 closed at 3,138, up 5; HC2510 closed at 3,276, up 3 [2][40][43]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The steel tender pricing has been settled, and the market is slightly boosted with a trend strength of 0. Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5484, up 24; Manganese Silicon 2509 closed at 5782, up 36 [2][45][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is expected to oscillate strongly, and coking coal is affected by news and also expected to oscillate strongly. Coke's trend strength is 0, and coking coal's is 1. Coke J2509 closed at 1525, up 5.5; Coking Coal JM2509 closed at 920, up 7 [2][48][51]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize with a trend strength of 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 [2][53][56]. - Log: The main contract is switching, and the price will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. The 2509 contract closed at 788, up 0.3% [2][57][59]. Chemicals - Para - Xylene: In a unilateral oscillating market [2][60]. - PTA: Monitor the production cut situation of filament factories [2][60]. - MEG: Low inventory, in a unilateral oscillating market, and positive spreads can be bought at low prices [2][60].