光大期货金融期货日报-20250715

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both stock index futures and bond futures are "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and a turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.02%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.1%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.04%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.07%. The manufacturing sector was strong, while real estate and non-banking sectors pulled back. The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the "anti-involution" policy, but the impact of this policy still depends on the scale and transmission mode of central fiscal policies. Overseas, the strong "non-farm" data has slightly slowed down the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened significantly. The fundamentals of the index still depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index is expected to move sideways in the short term [1] - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures contracts all closed lower, with declines of 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1197 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 both increased. In July, the central bank will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. In June, export growth and financial data exceeded expectations, and the bond market was under pressure due to the tightening of the capital market. However, with the support of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital market, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the bond market is expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,747.4 | 2,751.6 | -4.2 | -0.15% | | IF | 3,985.8 | 3,993.4 | -7.6 | -0.19% | | IC | 6,008.4 | 6,023.0 | -14.6 | -0.24% | | IM | 6,302.2 | 6,319.8 | -17.6 | -0.28% | [4] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,757.8 | 2,756.8 | 1.0 | 0.04% | | SSE 300 | 4,017.7 | 4,014.8 | 2.9 | 0.07% | | CSI 500 | 6,020.9 | 6,027.1 | -6.2 | -0.10% | | CSI 1000 | 6,462.3 | 6,461.1 | 1.2 | 0.02% | [4] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.38 | 102.42 | -0.036 | -0.04% | | TF | 105.92 | 106.00 | -0.075 | -0.07% | | T | 108.73 | 108.83 | -0.1 | -0.09% | | TL | 120.29 | 120.61 | -0.32 | -0.27% | [4] Group 4: Market News - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 5.0% [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17] Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of macro-financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29]