Soochow Securities·2025-07-15 04:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing seasonal adjustments in transaction volumes, leading to increased efforts in recovering idle land reserves [1] - The report highlights a significant decline in new home sales, with a 51.6% decrease week-on-week and an 18.4% decrease year-on-year for the week of July 5-11, 2025 [13] - The second-hand housing market shows a slight recovery with a 0.1% increase week-on-week, although it remains down 6.3% year-on-year [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market as a necessary condition for economic transformation, suggesting that current policies are beginning to take effect [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Views - The report suggests that the current policy environment recognizes the need for a stable and healthy real estate market for economic development, indicating a potential turning point in the current cycle [8] - Recommendations include strong local state-owned enterprises and quality private companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [8] 2. Real Estate Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1. Real Estate Market Conditions - New home sales in 36 cities totaled 144.4 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 51.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% [13] - Cumulative sales from January 1 to July 11, 2025, reached 54.9 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year [13] 2.2. Land Market Conditions - The report notes a significant decrease in land supply, with a 40.6% drop in building area supplied in the week of July 7-13, 2025 [40] - The average land price per square meter was reported at 1506 RMB, reflecting a 2.7% increase week-on-week [45] 2.3. Real Estate Financing Conditions - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, real estate companies issued a total of 24 credit bonds amounting to 21.68 billion RMB, marking a 111.6% increase week-on-week [51] - The net financing amount for the week was reported at 2.48 billion RMB [51] 5. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [8] - In property management, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests paying attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [9]