中盐化工（600328）：Q2盈利同比承压，纯碱景气待复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.53 billion RMB, down 88% year-on-year [1][6]. - The profitability in Q2 showed a net profit of 0.35 billion RMB, down 91% year-on-year but up 105% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a potential recovery trend [1][2]. - The report highlights that the soda ash industry is currently facing weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery in the second half of the year due to improved macroeconomic conditions and cost factors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6 billion RMB, with a net profit of 0.53 billion RMB, and a non-recurring net profit of 0.41 billion RMB, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1][6]. - Q2 2025 saw a net profit of 0.35 billion RMB, which is a 91% decrease year-on-year but a 105% increase from the previous quarter [1][2]. Sales and Pricing - The company's soda ash sales volume increased by 39% year-on-year to 2.15 million tons in H1 2025, although revenue from soda ash decreased by 6% to 2.66 billion RMB due to falling prices [2][3]. - The average price of soda ash in Q2 2025 was 1212 RMB/ton, down 31% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Industry Outlook - The soda ash industry is expected to see a recovery in demand in the second half of 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and a reduction in coal costs [3][4]. - The company is progressing with its natural soda ash project, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge in terms of scale and cost [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 0.28 billion RMB, 0.51 billion RMB, and 0.80 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a significant downward adjustment [4][19]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 8.96 RMB, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.07 for 2025 [4][6].