新能源及有色金属日报：有色板块整体震荡使得市场观望情绪较重-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall volatility of the non - ferrous sector has led to a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The terminal demand for electric vehicle and automotive batteries remains weak, with slow inventory digestion by dealers, resulting in insufficient new orders for production enterprises. Some manufacturers choose to temporarily halt or reduce production to relieve inventory pressure. The upcoming 15% - 20% new tariff policy in the US poses greater challenges to the industry's exports [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.62 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to -20.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -75 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,275 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste white shells and black shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan per ton and 10,575 yuan per ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,055 yuan per ton and closed at 17,085 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,556 lots, a decrease of 20,905 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 52,444 lots, a decrease of 1,035 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,130 yuan per ton and a low of 17,020 yuan per ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,060 yuan per ton and closed at 17,035 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and there was more queuing for pick - up due to reduced supply from smelters. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and small factories' lead could be quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton. In Jiangxi, smelters' inventory decreased, and quotes were firm, at a premium of 120 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead price. The spot market trading was weaker in the south and stronger in the north [2] Inventory - On July 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 14, the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is cautiously bullish. The starting - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces dropped to 70.76% in the first week of July, a 1.07 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The option strategy is to sell put options [4]