Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel exports remain at a high level, boosting domestic market sentiment. The weight of macro trading in the steel futures market is greater than that of industrial supply and demand. As prices rise, spot prices show signs of weakness in following up, and the basis narrows significantly. Short-term steel futures may enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - Under the boost of macro news, iron ore prices have continued to rise. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed much compared to the previous period. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the production of coking coal has recovered. The upstream inventory pressure has continued to decline, and some traders have increased their stockpiling. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have shown an oscillatory trend. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the fundamental driving force is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The futures price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. Steel exports remained at a high level, and the weight of macro trading in the futures market was greater than that of industrial supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term futures price will enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price of iron ore rose. The spot price of port iron ore also increased. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports decreased, and the number of ships at ports increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price of coking coal rose. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong. Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the upstream inventory pressure has decreased. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - Coke: The futures price of coke rose. The spot price of port coke was stable. The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price of manganese silicon fluctuated widely. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been determined, and other steel tenders are in progress. The supply of manganese silicon has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory of manganese silicon remains high. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate, and the upward space is limited [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been announced. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both at a low level in recent years. The inventory of ferrosilicon has gradually increased. The cost of ferrosilicon production has remained relatively stable. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: The contract spreads of various varieties have changed to different degrees, including the spreads between 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts [4]. - Basis: The basis of various varieties has also changed, including the basis of 10 and 01 contracts [4]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of various varieties in different regions have different changes, including the prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [4]. - Profit and Spread: The profits and spreads of various varieties have also changed, including the disk profit of rebar, the long - process profit, the short - process profit, and the spreads between different varieties [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: The chart shows the closing prices of the main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - Main Contract Basis: The chart shows the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: The chart shows the spreads between different contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][37]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: The chart shows the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - Rebar Profit: The chart shows the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].
黑色商品日报-20250715
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 05:06