光大期货软商品日报-20250715

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.22% to 13,875 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,175 lots to 557,700 lots. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15,282 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,295 yuan per ton, up 29 yuan. The USDA July report increased the global cotton production forecast by 311,000 tons, mainly from China and the U.S. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to exceed consumption, and there is still room for production increase. In the domestic market, the factors supporting the cotton price increase are not sustainable. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased by over 8% in 2025, and the weather is suitable with a high probability of a good harvest. Although the commercial inventory is low, there is no shortage worry due to sufficient state - reserve and potential quota increase. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may rise, but the new - year's supply - demand pattern restricts the increase, and the 09 contract may perform better than the 01 [2]. - Sugar: The USDA reported that the U.S. 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons, with beet sugar at 5.097 million short tons and cane sugar at 4.098 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated at 13.5%. The spot sugar prices in Guangxi and Yunnan were stable, and some processing sugar mills raised the price by 10 yuan per ton. Brazilian bi - weekly sugar production was lower than expected, but the sugar price still declined due to concerns about future supply. In the domestic market, Yunnan and processing sugar sold well, but the concern about imported sugar pressure remained. The futures price rebounded and then followed the raw sugar decline, and it should be treated with a short - term oscillatory view, with attention to June import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: Analyzed international and domestic market conditions, including price changes, production forecasts, and supply - demand factors, and concluded that the short - term price may rise but is restricted by the new - year's supply - demand pattern [2]. - Sugar: Presented U.S. production forecasts, domestic and international price information, and supply - demand concerns, and suggested a short - term oscillatory view [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread was 60, down 5; the main - contract basis was 1,420, up 39; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,282, up 19, and the national spot price was 15,295, up 29 [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread was 184, up 7; the main - contract basis was 283, down 7; the Nanning spot price was 6,060, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100, unchanged [3]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On July 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 43 to 9,807, with 216 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [4]. - Sugar: On July 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 28 to 22,716, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts of cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, were presented, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15]