国债期货日报：股债跷跷板显著，国债期货全线收跌-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market oscillated downward. Affected by the continuous net withdrawal by the central bank with a still loose capital - side and the economic expectation adjustment due to the easing of overseas tariffs, the yields of both short - and long - term bonds increased. Meanwhile, the strong stock market drove the risk appetite to recover, and funds flowed from the bond market to the equity market, forming an obvious "stock - bond seesaw" effect. The bond market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year yield expected to fluctuate between 1.64% - 1.68%. In the medium and long term, it will maintain the basis for a bull market supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.11, with a day - on - day increase of 0.24 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1702, with a day - on - day increase of 0.003 (+0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.71%); DR007 was 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.06 (+4.36%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.31%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1 - year) was 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+1.31%) [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of Treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of Treasury bonds of various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [10][12][14]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Side - Relevant figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, bond lending turnover and the total position of Treasury bond futures, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28][30]. 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2TS - 3TF + T) [37][39][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][45][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54][52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62][64]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the repurchase rate rising and the Treasury bond futures price oscillating, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].