运价高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The freight rate is fluctuating at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a state of high - level volatility and game for delivery, with expectations of price support. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. - The strategy includes a volatile main contract for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 77,426.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 58,106.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1386.10, 1218.60, 1382.20, 2027.20, 1440.70, and 1580.50 respectively [5][6]. II. Spot Price - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1266.59 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, representatives of the Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces met and negotiated in Damascus. The Syrian regime advocates "one Syria, one army, one government" and opposes separatism [2]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 3 weeks of July was 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly capacity in August was 310,000 TEU. There were 5 blank sailings in July (4 by the OA alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA alliance). Maersk plans to add an extra - sailing ship in WEEK34 [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - In the off - season of April and October, the freight rate is usually at a low level. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is high, and shipping companies adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The price in December is generally 10% higher than that in October in normal years [4].